Post by Kiwi Frontline on Sept 16, 2016 6:40:10 GMT 12
5 REASONS WHY THE MĀORI PARTY WILL LOSE OUT IF IT DITCHES NATIONAL
By Chris Holden
The Māori Party has threatened to walk out on the National Government over the Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary debacle.
And if they do it could cost them greatly. Here's why:
1. A walkout will not force an election
In a Parliament of 121 MPs, National needs 61 seats to govern.
Currently National and its support partners have 63 seats combined. If the Māori Party walked tomorrow, National can still govern on 61 seats (with support from ACT and United Future).
2. Māori are better to be at the table
Māori are far better to be at the table in government, whether it be National or Labour, than confined to the Parliamentary back benches.
Why? Because at the table, they have a say.
The Māori Party's own confidence and supply agreement with National reads: "By being at the table, the Māori party have gained significant policy wins."
Wins like the Government's support on the Māori Party-led war on cigarettes, which saw the increase of cigarette tax.
Other advantages include a ministerial position for co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell.
If the Māori Party walks away, it will lose it all. It will have no big brother to push legislation through and no direct influence over policy affecting both Māori and New Zealand as a whole.
3. The Kermadec debacle could get worse following a walkout
Māori and the Māori Party are furious over the Kermadec debacle. The Government has broken a 1992 Treaty settlement which guarantees Māori the right to fish in all New Zealand waters, including those proposed for the Kermadec sanctuary.
Imagine if Māori told the Crown, "No sorry, we've decided that you can't use this land." All hell would break loose.
And, if the Māori Party walks away, the Government could do away with any further consultation or attempts to reach a satisfactory agreement. It could take years for compensation to be awarded for a proven Treaty breach - John Key will almost certainly be out of office by then.
4. National does not need the Māori Party to govern in the 2017 election
According to the latest Newshub Reid Research poll, National will not need the Māori Party's support to govern following the 2017 election either.
The poll allocates National 55 seats, two seats to the Māori Party and one seat for both ACT and United Future. Collectively, even with the Māori Party, this falls two seats short of forming a government.
Likewise, Labour won't need the Māori Party to form a government. Instead, both National and Labour will need NZ First's 10 seats.
5. A walkout could slash any chance of future coalition deals
If the Māori Party walks out then serious political ramifications could result. Both National and Labour could decide not to include the Māori Party in Government unless their seats are essential to get a Government across the line.
National didn't need the Māori Party in 2014 to govern, but they took them anyway. If the Māori Party's goal is to be "in the tent", then abruptly walking out of the tent will do it no favours.
Newshub.
www.newshub.co.nz/politics/5-reasons-why-the-mori-party-will-lose-out-if-they-ditch-national-2016091522
By Chris Holden
The Māori Party has threatened to walk out on the National Government over the Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary debacle.
And if they do it could cost them greatly. Here's why:
1. A walkout will not force an election
In a Parliament of 121 MPs, National needs 61 seats to govern.
Currently National and its support partners have 63 seats combined. If the Māori Party walked tomorrow, National can still govern on 61 seats (with support from ACT and United Future).
2. Māori are better to be at the table
Māori are far better to be at the table in government, whether it be National or Labour, than confined to the Parliamentary back benches.
Why? Because at the table, they have a say.
The Māori Party's own confidence and supply agreement with National reads: "By being at the table, the Māori party have gained significant policy wins."
Wins like the Government's support on the Māori Party-led war on cigarettes, which saw the increase of cigarette tax.
Other advantages include a ministerial position for co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell.
If the Māori Party walks away, it will lose it all. It will have no big brother to push legislation through and no direct influence over policy affecting both Māori and New Zealand as a whole.
3. The Kermadec debacle could get worse following a walkout
Māori and the Māori Party are furious over the Kermadec debacle. The Government has broken a 1992 Treaty settlement which guarantees Māori the right to fish in all New Zealand waters, including those proposed for the Kermadec sanctuary.
Imagine if Māori told the Crown, "No sorry, we've decided that you can't use this land." All hell would break loose.
And, if the Māori Party walks away, the Government could do away with any further consultation or attempts to reach a satisfactory agreement. It could take years for compensation to be awarded for a proven Treaty breach - John Key will almost certainly be out of office by then.
4. National does not need the Māori Party to govern in the 2017 election
According to the latest Newshub Reid Research poll, National will not need the Māori Party's support to govern following the 2017 election either.
The poll allocates National 55 seats, two seats to the Māori Party and one seat for both ACT and United Future. Collectively, even with the Māori Party, this falls two seats short of forming a government.
Likewise, Labour won't need the Māori Party to form a government. Instead, both National and Labour will need NZ First's 10 seats.
5. A walkout could slash any chance of future coalition deals
If the Māori Party walks out then serious political ramifications could result. Both National and Labour could decide not to include the Māori Party in Government unless their seats are essential to get a Government across the line.
National didn't need the Māori Party in 2014 to govern, but they took them anyway. If the Māori Party's goal is to be "in the tent", then abruptly walking out of the tent will do it no favours.
Newshub.
www.newshub.co.nz/politics/5-reasons-why-the-mori-party-will-lose-out-if-they-ditch-national-2016091522